Российско – японские отношения в динамике развития региональных структур безопасности: оценка роли США

Abstract The dissertation employs elements of the alliance theory approach to test whether key choices in Japanese policy towards Russia can be explained in terms of the structural limitations imposed on Japanese foreign policy by the U.S.-Japan alliance. Its findings are relevant to ongoing debates over the specification of Japanese interests, the key determinants of Japanese policy choices, and the constraints facing Japan in its policy towards Russia. It focuses on alliance-adversary dynamics in the U.S.-Japan-Russia trilateral, asking how dynamic links between the territorial dispute and the security alliance can be modelled, and introducing a “quasi-adversarial” model. The dissertation argues that Russia continues to play a threefold role for Japan in its alliance with the United States. First, Russia is “played” by Japan for influence as a hedge/test balloon in its alliance with the US; second, negotiations with Russia are used for domestic gain by Japanese politicians; and thirdly, alliance factors influence not only Japanese calculations towards Russia, but reflect back on Japan, in the form of their influence on Russian perceptions and actions.