Пешль Флориан -
The Decline of the ‘Caucasus Emirate’: Pan-Islamism and Russian Counterterrorism in the Wake of the Syrian Civil War 2011-2015
Международные отношения в Евразии
In 2015, the sectarian movement Islamic State in Iraq and ash-Sham [ISIS] established a branch in the North Caucasus, Vilayat Qawqaz, officiating its advances into Russian territory. The announcement recognized the defections of several commanders of the ‘Caucasus Emirate’, who switched their allegiance to ISIS. The reasons experts have put forward to explain its decline are manifold, ranging from the exodus of volunteers in the Syrian Civil War to intensified counterinsurgency operations in the North Caucasus. The CE been marginalized, its offensive capabilities drastically diminished. Yet, it might be too early to write it off, since offshoots still operate in the Levant. Therefore, it can be considered an ideal case for an idiographic analysis of the various pathways that have brought the insurgency in this desperate position. Applying relevant theories of conflict and terrorism, it seeks to craft a minimally sufficient explanation for the CE’s decline, drawing a tentative conclusion. This dissertation contributes to the debates over typologies of terrorism and jihadism by illustrating the difficulties in applying them to the case of the NC insurgency.