Маленко Майя Александровна
Comparative Analysis and Efficiency Estimation of World Energetics Forecasts
The International Energy Agency is probably the most prominent organization in global energy forecasting which has been influencing the decision-making process of policy-makers and investors. However, the IEA has been constantly underestimating the potential of renewable energy sources, especially solar and wind power, due to the incorrect growth assumption. The IEA has been assuming linear growth, while historically renewable energy sources were growing exponentially. The potential reasons behind this systematic mistake, such as lobbyism, institutional conservatism and lack of market insights. This paper aims to evaluate the efficiency of the IEA’s world energy projections for RE by conducting retrospective analysis of WEO successive projections and to estimate the accuracy of IEA’s global energy projections for renewables by comparing them to other institutions’ projections.