Назмеев Ринат Рустамович
Wisdom of the Crowd Effect Study
Совместная программа по экономике НИУ ВШЭ и РЭШ
Most of the times important decisions in companies are made in small groups facing uncertainty. Certain business metrics are usually private though they are essential in business planning. In my thesis, I analyze how could a “crowd wisdom” phenomena help to better solve estimation tasks. I am testing how individual accuracy and group accuracy vary depending on the type of discussion within the group. In my experiment, 32 participants of the final round of “Vyshe mechty” business game from Sberbank answer questions that require economics reasoning. As a result, of the experiment, it can be argued that on average individual errors are reduced. Unfortunately, this cannot be stated about the groups’ errors due to the insufficient number of observations.