Шемендюк Александр Андреевич
Optimal Medical Insurance in Connected SIR Centers during Epidemic Outbreak
Статистическое моделирование и актуарные расчеты
In this work we aim to study an optimal insurance premium level for health-care in a deterministic and stochastic SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) models with migration. The studied models consider 2 standard SIR centres connected via links and continuous migration fluxes. The premium is calculated using the basic equivalence principle. Even in this simple setup there are non-intuitive results that illustrate how the premium depends on migration rates, severeness of a disease, and vaccine allocation amoung the centres. We consider general and fatal epidemics, and cases when the dynamics of the spread depends on initial numbers of susceptible and infected people. We investigate how the vaccination program effects the insurance costs by comparing the savings in benefits with the expenses for vaccination. For further specification, we introduce a discounting factor and compare the results.
Текст работы (работа добавлена 4 июня 2019г.)