Моделирование и исследование этнодемографических структур на примере Эстонии

The collapse of the Soviet Union entailed intensive changes in the ethnic structure of the population of many independent states, and its nature is still insufficiently studied. Both sociologists and demographers do not have a clear idea of what changes in the population of countries will lead to further ethno-demographic changes, this topic is the subject of discussion. Changes are taking place in many social processes, including the evolution of the perception of their ethnic identity among representatives of many ethnic groups, their reidentification, the formation of the phenomenon of multiple ethnicity; all this can lead to the active assimilation of ethnic groups. The development of various methods for forecasting the development of the ethnic structure of countries and territories, taking into account both demographic structures and the nature of ethnic identification, is a necessary condition for the preservation of ethnic diversity. The paper considers the methodology and methodology of demographic forecasting for an ethnic group, describes the mathematical foundations of forecasting for an ethnic group, and simulates the reproduction of ethnic groups in Estonia. The empirical base was formed from 1795 to the present day. The forecast of the size of the main ethnic groups in Estonia from 2021 to 2061 has been carried out.