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Regular version of the site

On Wednesday, September 19 the all-Russian seminar "Mathematical methods of decision analysis in economics, finance and politics" was hold.

Speaker: Ilya Zutler (HSE)
Title: "Probabilistic preferences in the cumulative prospect theory"

Speaker: Ilya Zutler (HSE)

Title: "Probabilistic preferences in the cumulative prospect theory"

 

Abstract: The report presented some of the models of the individual preferences on a set of alternatives, for which we can not predict the result of choice uniquely but can only indicate the probability of selection of an alternative. Foundations of cumulative theory of prospects by A. Tversky and D. Kahneman and axiomatic features of the model were presented as well. The equivalence of the classical formula for utility evaluation of a prospect (in the continuous case reduces to the Choquet integral) and a simplified formula (which reduces to the Riemann integral) was shown. Within the framework of a cumulative theory of prospects the rational choice paradigm assumes a univocal choice in favor of the prospect of maximum utility. However, in the process of selecting an individual compares how much one prospect is preferable against another and vice versa. In this paper we use a simplified formula, and these values were identified (and named a comparative utility), and the corresponding model of probabilistic preferences was constructed .

Additional materials: Presentation