Nowadays there are representative volumes of demographic data which are the sources for extraction of demographic sequences that can be further analysed and interpreted by domain experts. Since traditional statistical methods cannot face the emerging needs of demography, we used modern methods of pattern mining and machine learning to achieve better results. In particular, our collaborators, the demographers, are interested in two main problems: prediction of the next event in a personal life trajectory and finding interesting patterns in terms of demographic events for the gender feature.
The main goal of this paper is to compare different methods by accuracy for these tasks. We have considered interpretable methods such as decision trees and semi- and non-interpretable methods, such as the SVM method with custom kernels and neural networks. The best accuracy results are obtained with a two-channel convolutional neural network. All the acquired results and the found patterns are passed to the demographers for further investigation.
The paper aims to contribute to studies of women’s human capital and fertility in post-Soviet societies. The post-Soviet regions are a particularly interesting setting to study this question because they have combined traditional family organization and rapid social change in recent decades. Based on evidence from Karachay-Cherkessia (Russia), we examine whether elements of a woman’s human capital can account for her fertility behavior in the context of family traditionalism. Our analysis is based in a sample survey of women conducted in 2018. Using Poisson regressions, we analyze the relation of human capital and family traditionalism to the number of children born to women of different ages. We conclude that both human capital and cultural family traditionalism (the empowerment of elder relatives in a woman’s family and a woman’s observance of religious rituals) appear to be significant for fertility decisions, with their effects working in opposite directions.
Intraregional migration in modern Russia plays a crucial role in the implementation of people’s life plans. It also contributes to spatial configuration changes. Every second registered resettlement within Russia occurs within the borders of the regions. However, nothing is known about intraregional migration, except for its total volume and role in changing the population of individual municipalities. The statistical information collected by the authors on long-term intraregional migration for 1265 municipalities in 39 regions of Russia (51.4% of the country’s population) for 2017 made it possible to generate arrival, departure, and net migration matrices for each region. This made it possible to analyze the intraregional migration flows and intraregional redistribution of the population between regional centers, suburban municipalities, and regional periphery. The analysis revealed that the population movement between regional centers, their suburbs and other municipalities in all intraregional migration approximately corresponds to their share in the population. All types of municipalities are equally involved in migration. There is an intensive migration exchange between regional centers and their suburbs. Regional centers are not only inferior to the suburbs in terms of the intensity of migration growth: 80% of regional centers lose their population in the migration exchange with their own suburbs. In general, the redistribution of the population within the framework of intraregional migration in almost all the studied regions contributes to an increase in the concentration of the population in the agglomeration zone formed by regional centers and their suburbs. In some regions, there is another “zone” of population concentration, as a rule, much smaller: the sub-centers represented by large cities located at a considerable distance from regional centers. They form their own zones of positive net migration with the nearest peripheral municipalities. In most cases, this migration allows sub-centers to only compensate for the migration outflow to other regions of the country or to their own regional centers.
The Russian healthcare system provides a set of free and paid diagnostic and therapeutic services. Although, when prescribing additional paid services, a specific doctor is provided with the situation of choice. The doctor is faced with a set of ethical and professional motivators, one of which is paid services as a source of additional medical income. What do doctors do in this situation, what strategies do they choose and what motivates their decision? Conducted and analyzed in-depth interviews (18 interviews, Tver, 2018) with doctors of different specialities revealed several patterns of doctor’s behavior when prescribing paid services. The data analyzed in the tactics of grounded theory allowed the author to build several models of doctor’s behavior, where such choices are associated with certain system of professional and personal values. The described models are conventionally named by author: “Making money”, “Polypragmasia”, “Collegiality”, “Man-System”, “One and a half rates”, “Out of the system”, “Avoidance”.The constructed models of behavior of doctors show that the appointment of additional optional procedures is associated not only with the doctor’s desire to earn money, but also can be explained by a more complex combination of reasons, working conditions, formal and informal social norms, as well as the basic values of the doctors themselves.
The article scrutinizes one of the most acute problems in Russian society – the continued high level of separations among first unions. According to the official statistics data, Russia has consistently held a leading position in terms of divorce rates among European countries. Recent estimates of period total divorce rates suggest that 30–40% of marriages contracted in the 1970-1980s and 50–60% of marriages contracted in the last two decades have a chance of being dissolved. The authors use materials from the panel part of the sample survey «Parents and children, men and women in the family and society» to examine the stability of first unions formed in 1945–2010 – either direct marriage, marriage after cohabitation or cohabitation in partnership cohorts. The results suggest an increase in the proportion of dissolved marriages from 14% in the marital cohorts of 1945–1954 to 30% in marital cohorts of 1980–1989. In these cohorts, «direct» marriages were more stable than marriages, which followed cohabitations. However, it is not so obvious for marriages preceded by cohabitations in the 1990s. Authors conclude that the average duration of a dissolved marriage and the average age of women at the time of the dissolution of the marriage has decreased. Cohabitation remains the least stable form of union with an average duration of 4–5 years. Childless unions break up 2 times more often both among marriages and cohabitations. There has been also a decrease in the average number of children in all types of broken unions with children. Based on results formulated at the final part of the article the authors suggest that the «direct» marriage without prior cohabitation become a less attractive form of union that might positively affect the stability of Russian marriages by reducing the probability of divorce due to such grounds of divorce as incompatibility in characters, views and beliefs, especially in the initial years of joint life.
50 years ago, on August 22, 1970, Hermann Knaus died in Graz in the Austrian region of Styria. About 100 years ago, he invented the method of natural birth control, the only method of family planning recognized by the Vatican.
Ravenstein, writing in 19th century papers, observed that migration varied with the life course. However, he did not investigate this variation in detail, as the necessary data were not then available. Age-specific migration has been a focus for researchers of migration in the 20th and 21st centuries. Building on this research, the current paper explores age-specific migration in Russia focussing on its spatial diversity. We compare age-specific migration patterns found in Russia and those observed in other developed countries. For this investigation, we mainly use Russian administrative data on residence registration for 2012-2016, together with information on populations by age in the latest census in 2010. The data are analysed using a classification of local administrative units classified by degree of remoteness from Russia’s principal cities (regional centres).
The main results are as follows: In Russia, young people participate strongly in migration flows between peripheral territories and regional centres. The net migration surplus in regional centres is mostly produced by the migration of 15-19 year-olds starting further and higher education courses. Peak migration occurs in this age group. This type of migration represents upward mobility in the spatial hierarchy because institutions of higher education are located in the large cities. People aged 20-29 and 30-39 migrate in much smaller numbers, but they also replenish the population of regional centres. The inflow of middle-aged migrants and families with children was directed to the areas located closest to the regional centres, the suburbs. This type of migration is observed in regions with a well-developed middle class with high purchasing power, for example, in the city of Moscow and in the Moscow Region.
Peripheral territories have similar profiles of age-specific migration, but of loss rather than gain. The farther they are from regional centres, the more significant the outflow of young people and the stronger the impact of migration on population ageing. The rural periphery and small cities attract only elderly migrants, but this inflow is far smaller than the outflow of young people. The directions and age selectivity of migration observed in other countries are thus also found in Russia, although there are important differences associated with the nature of housing in Russian cities and regions.
The article aims to present social ties of the Republic of Bashkortostan based on voice cell phone data, which covers 12 million calls from and to the region during the first five days of March 2020. About 96% of calls are made within the republic and only 4% of them are interregional. The people of the Republic of Bashkortostan have close connections with those who live in neighboring regions (Orenburg, Sverdlovsk oblast, the Republic of Tatarstan and especially Chelyabinsk oblast). Being a part of the Ural Economic Region, the Volga Federal District and Volga-Ural Macro Region, the republic has turned mostly towards Ural regions. We also found that the republic has close social ties with Moscow and Moscow region, St. Petersburg and Leningrad oblast, as well as Krasnodar kray, Samara oblast and two Autonomous Districts: Khanty-Mansi and Yamalo-Nenets. We estimated the number of persons who possessed Bashkir SIM-card and were outside the republic during the research period – 183 thousand; the most of them were in the abovementioned regions. While conversation between residents lasts 50 seconds, which is among the smallest values, the calls to and from republics of Altai, Tyva, Khakassia, Sakha and Magadan oblast are 5-8 times longer. Overall, the communication pattern reflects migration flows and economic relations between regions. In conclusion, we postulate that cell phone data can be exploited as a source of social ties data.
While understanding their positions on various ethical issues in the field of reproductive technologies, IVF patients form their own special language, not scientific, but rather vernacular, based on real experience. A group of women actively seeking procreation with modern biotechnologies remains somewhat conservative, focused on a traditional family. New concepts and terminology are particularly well-formed in their disputes over the use of reproductive donation. In general, what they articulate and advocate is consistent with concepts of bioethics that are also controversial – for some, the priority of genetic connectivity is unusually strong, while others deny its significance. The study bases on examining perceptions of reproductive donation by bioethics specialists presented in the literature and their comparison with the views of ART patients communicating on the Internet. The author uses qualitative discourse analysis and studies thematic discussions on the Probirka.ru website, which are devoted to the preferences of their participants in relation to reproductive donation, its acceptance or rejection. The study shows that patients’ positions are somewhat more extreme than the views of bioethics. For example, some participants practically deny the existence of genes, while others talk about the advantage of finding a child without using one’s own body. The author reveals different groups of patients, and more traditionally oriented women prefer to delegate the genetic part of parenthood to third parties and cannot refuse to bear pregnancy as they see it as a central part of female identity, while more modernized prefer to keep genetic connection if it is possible to refuse childbearing.
We use household panel data from Tajikistan to explore the change in living arrangements as a response to income shifts related to international labour migration. In addition, we analyse the interaction between the effect of idiosyncratic income increase resulting from a completed migration episode, and the effect of an aggregate shock – the global financial crisis – and show how different households adjust their household size during times of financial hardship. The empirical evidence indicates that while current migration is associated with an increase in household size, a completed migration episode two years before the interview was followed by family members moving out. At the same time, our empirical analysis demonstrates that migrant families doubled up in response to a financial crisis to the same extent as non‐migrant families, which suggests that labour migration in Tajikistan does not insure against economic shocks in the long run.
This chapter summarizes the issues of emigration from the countries that formed the Commonwealth of Independent States immediately after the breakup of the USSR some 25 years ago, to non-CIS countries. It is based on various statistical sources from host countries and migration databases of international organizations (Eurostat, OECD, UN Population Division, UNESCO, UNHCR). The scale of emigration from the former Soviet republics was massive. There were two emigration periods, each having its own geography, intensity, and reasons. The emigration outflow was strongest in the 1990s. Its size and geography were largely determined by the repatriation movement of Germans, Jews, Greeks, and economic and political consequences of the breakup of the USSR. In the 2000s, the geography of emigration from the CIS expanded and become in line with global mobility trends. As a result, new migrant communities emerged in many countries. Permanent residents from post-Soviet countries are especially numerous in Germany, Israel, the USA and Italy.
This paper examines the factors of interregional migration in Russia for people of different ages. Basing on 2010 census data, we estimate negative binomial regression models for total migration flows and migration flows disaggregated by age with socio-economic, demographic, geographical factors of the regions of departure and arrival. The analysis showed that only two flows: migrants of economically active age and families react correctly (from an economic point of view) to the variables of the labor market, incomes, the economic situation of the regions of departure and arrival, and housing indicators. Pensioners tend to minimize the costs of living, moving to poorer regions with high unemployment, where the cost of living is cheaper, and to regions with a favorable climate, thus saving on housing maintenance and having opportunity for subsistence farming. Students and young people are rational in their relocation in a different way, they are motivated by the possibility of building up human capital and opportunities for starting a career, while other factors are insignificant for them. The study also confirmed the hypothesis that in Russia, as in other countries, migrant flows of different ages move in opposite directions.
There is currently an increase in the number of heat waves occurring worldwide. Moscow experienced the effects of an extreme heat wave in 2010, which resulted in more than 10,000 extra deaths and significant economic damage. This study conducted a comprehensive assessment of the social risks existing during the occurrence of heat waves and allowed us to identify the spatial heterogeneity of the city in terms of thermal risk and the consequences for public health. Using a detailed simulation of the meteorological regime based on the COSMO-CLM regional climate model and the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET), a spatial assessment of thermal stress in the summer of 2010 was carried out. Based on statistical data, the components of social risk (vulnerabilities and adaptive capacity of the population) were calculated and mapped. We also performed an analysis of their changes in 2010–2017. A significant differentiation of the territory of Moscow has been revealed in terms of the thermal stress and vulnerability of the population to heat waves. The spatial pattern of thermal stress agrees quite well with the excess deaths observed during the period from July to August 2010. The identified negative trend of increasing vulnerability of the population has grown in most districts of Moscow. The adaptive capacity has been reduced in most of Moscow. The growth of adaptive capacity mainly affects the most prosperous areas of the city.
The analysis of migration based on the Russian censuses and micro-censuses for the period from late 1980s to the mid-2010s shows that the Kaliningrad region may become more divorced from the main territory of Russia. Besides the geographic isolation of the region, there emerge also demographic and ethnic differences. The population of the Baltic region of Russia is becoming more ethnically homogeneous, the share of local natives is growing rapidly, migration links with other territories are weakening.
The authors consider how the size and characteristics of labor migration ﬂows in the post-Soviet space have transformed living conditions in the origin and destination areas. Post-Soviet labor migration annually involves several million people. In consequence, the well-being of millions of households in the relatively poor countries of origin of migrant workers (in the recent past, Azerbaijan; now, Armenia, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Ukraine) depends on the export of labor. In the countries of destination, primarily in the main center of the regional (Eurasian) migration system, Russia, as well as in Kazakhstan, migrant workers have occupied important niches in the labor market, substantially contributing to the functioning of selected sectors of the economy and meeting the needs of private households. Labor migration in the postSoviet space is characterized by a large proportion of undocumented migrants and the predominance of low-skilled workers.
This book discusses international migration in the newly independent states after the collapse of the Soviet Union, which involved millions of people. Written by authors from 15 countries, it summarizes the population movement over the post-Soviet territories, both within the newly independent states and in other countries over the past 25 years. It focuses on the volume of migration flows, the number and socio-demographic characteristics of migrants, migration factors and the situation of migrants in receiving countries. The authors, who include demographers, economists, geographers, anthropologists, sociologists and political scientists, used various methods and sources of information, such as censuses, administrative statistics, the results of mass sample surveys and in-depth interviews. This heterogeneity highlights the multifaceted nature of the topic of migration movements.
Following the release of the global status report, Russia (group 1) hosted several consultations involving all relevant ministries, agencies, and leading national scientific institutions on road traffic injuries to review WHO’s national estimate on road traffic deaths. Through these consultations, comprehensive vital registration data were released for 2016. The new estimates that were generated were 19% lower than originally calculated and were in line with official data reported by the Ministry of the Interior of the Russian Federation, which were also published in the global status report.
The Covid-19 crisis has highlighted the importance of connections between wildlife and the emergence of novel pandemic diseases in humans. The wildlife trade is hypothesized to have played a role in the origins of the current pandemic, resulting in calls for restrictions on the legal wildlife trade, and greater enforcement against the illegal wildlife trade, on public health grounds. There is also speculation about how the pandemic might affect the illegal wildlife trade by making consumption of wildlife products less socially acceptable, or because lockdown measures and travel restrictions may hamper effective regulation of the illegal wildlife trade. Here we highlight a case where Covid-19 is increasing demand for illegal wildlife trade products used as perceived natural disease remedies, drawing on long-term monitoring of the illegal wildlife trade in the northern Caspian Sea.