Logistics and Supply Chain Predictive Analytics

Master 2021/2022

Category 'Best Course for Broadening Horizons and Diversity of Knowledge and Skills'

Category 'Best Course for New Knowledge and Skills'

Type: Elective course (Strategic Management of Logistics and Supply Chains in the Digital Economy)

Area of studies: Management

Delivered by: Department of Operations Management and Logistics

Where: Graduate School of Business

When: 1 year, 4 module

Mode of studies: distance learning

Open to: students of all HSE University campuses

Instructors: Maxim Rozhkov, Gleb Zakhodiakin

Master’s programme: Стратегическое управление логистикой и цепями поставок в цифровой экономике

Language: English

ECTS credits: 3

Contact hours: 24

Full Syllabus

Abstract

This is an elective course, offered during the 2nd year of the MSc program “Strategic Logistics Management”. The goal of this course is to provide an overview of classical and modern methods for solving business problems that can be addressed with predictive analytics and to extend the practical skills of predictive modeling. The course builds upon knowledge gained in the research seminar and extends it towards modern modeling methods such as ensemble models and deep learning. The topics of model selection, feature selection and feature engineering are covered in greater detail. All classes run in a computer lab. A class includes an overview of theoretical principles, a guide to implementation of analysis methods in software and a hands-on example for solving a practical problem using software tools. This is followed by a discussion of practical application of predictive methods in business analytics. In order to pass the course, all participants are required to give a short presentation on application of predictive analytics tools and to do an individual or group project for application of predictive analytics tools to solve a real-world problem of their choice (students can join a data science competition, for example). Pre-requisites The participants should have basic knowledge of data processing tools and technologies, as well as understanding of modeling methods such as regression. Research Seminar “Methods and tools of Data Analysis” offered in the 3rd year of the BSc program “Logistics and Supply Chain Management” would be a good background. For students who didn’t have the opportunity to take that course several competences are required: • working knowledge of descriptive statistics and exploratory data analysis (graphs and descriptive statistics); • working knowledge of analytical statistics (statistical hypotheses testing, correlation and regression); • familiarity with programming languages for statistical data analysis (R/tidyverse is preferable); • basic understanding of operations with relational data, such as filtering, sorting, grouping and joining data tables.

Learning Objectives

To explain the application of predictive models in a business analytics context
To describe the steps required to develop an analytical solution
To define predictive analytics task types
To elaborate on methods for solving regression and classification type problems
To explain methods and approaches for assessing and improving the quality of predictive models
To provide tutorial on implementing data analysis steps using R
To discuss business cases and opportunities of predictive modeling

Expected Learning Outcomes

to apply resampling strategies for model evaluation
to apply the MLR framework for constructing, benchmarking and tuning predictive models
to apply variable selection procedures for model specification
to construct ensemble-based models using R
to construct linear predictive models using R
to construct regularized linear models using R
to construct tree-based regresssion and classification models using R
to definde the concept of statistical/machine learning
to define the predictive analytics concept
to develop a prototype analytical solution to a business problem using R and to present its outcomes to decision makers
to explain the tradeoff between model bias and variance
to identify a predictive task type based on a problem formulation
To implement deep learning models using Keras and R
to implement linear classifiers using R
to interpret model accuracy metrics for regression models
to interpret performance metrics for classification models
to justify an appropriate model type and specification using model benchmarking techniques
to list the steps in implementation of a predictive analytics solution
to name use cases of predictive modeling in Logistics and Supply Chain Management
to prepare data for a predictive model

Course Contents

Topic 1. Predictive analytics defined. Use-cases. Lifecycle of an analytical solution.
Topic 2. The concept of statistical/machine learning
Topic 3. Regression using linear models
Topic 4. Classification using logistic regression
Topic 5. Resampling for model performance assessment
Topic 6. Variable selection and model regularization.
Topic 7. Tree-based classifiers
Topic 8. Modeling frameworks
Topic 9. Ensemble models
Topic 10. Deep Learning

Assessment Elements

Participation
The grade is computed by dividing the sum of points for participation obtained by the student divided by the total points for all assignments posted and multiplied by 10. The result is posted into the gradebook without rounding.
Presentation
Project Defense

Interim Assessment

2021/2022 4th module
0.5 * Project Defense + 0.29 * Participation + 0.21 * Presentation

Bibliography

Recommended Core Bibliography

Gareth James, Daniela Witten, Trevor Hastie, Rob Tibshirani, & Maintainer Trevor Hastie. (2013). Type Package Title Data for An Introduction to Statistical Learning with Applications in R Version 1.0. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsbas&AN=edsbas.28D80286
Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R., & Friedman, J. H. (2009). The Elements of Statistical Learning : Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction (Vol. Second edition, corrected 7th printing). New York: Springer. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=277008
James, G. et al. An introduction to statistical learning. – Springer, 2013. – 426 pp.
Lantz, B. (2019). Machine Learning with R : Expert Techniques for Predictive Modeling, 3rd Edition (Vol. Third edition). Birmingham, UK: Packt Publishing. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=2106304
Larose, D. T., & Larose, C. D. (2015). Data Mining and Predictive Analytics. Hoboken, New Jersey: Wiley. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsebk&AN=958471
Taweh Beysolow II. (2017). Introduction to Deep Learning Using R. Springer. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=edsrep&AN=edsrep.b.spr.sprbok.978.1.4842.2734.3

Recommended Additional Bibliography

Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R., Friedman, J. The elements of statistical learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction. – Springer, 2009. – 745 pp.
Larose, D. T., Larose, C. D. Discovering knowledge in data: an introduction to data mining. – John Wiley & Sons, 2014. – 336 pp.

Course Syllabus