Critical Issues of Short-term Business Statistics Development in Russia

<p>The aim of this work is to determine first of all the critical issues of short-term business statistics (STS) &nbsp;development in Russia, second, building and third statistical analysis and comparison of the dynamics of short-term indicators for the domestic industry as a whole and by the example of JSC &quot;Experimental factory &quot;Gidromontazh&quot;</p><p>In accordance with this aim there were posed the following research tasks:</p><p>1.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; To analyse and characterize the European short-term business statistics system (that is developed and implemented by Eurostat for the countries of EU, EFTA and the countries, that are candidates to EU members) with Russian system of short-term business statistics;</p><p>2.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Comparison of short-term business statistics indicators, that is calculated and published by the Federal State Statistics Service for industry, building, trade and services of the Russian Federation, with European short-term business statistics system ;</p><p>3.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; To calculate STS indicators for Russian industry, build models, that characterize their dynamic and forecast development of the Russian industry and finally choose of optimum models;</p><p>4.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Dynamics comparison of indicators of JSC &ldquo;Experimental factory &ldquo;Gidromontazh &rdquo; and short-term business statistics indices of the Russian industry in whole;</p><p>5.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The statistical analyses and forecasting of multivariate time series of indicators of JSC &quot;Experimental factory &quot;Gidromontazh&quot;</p><p>Informational base of research is the data of the Federal State Statistics Service, published in the books &quot;Social and economic situation in Russia&quot; and &quot;Household Survey of employment&quot;, as well as internal data of &quot;Experimental factory &quot;Gidromontazh&quot;: production, employment, products prices. Analyzed data cover the period from January 2010 to December 2013.</p><p>Methodological base is the statistical analysis of time series: seasonality and trend analysis, regression analysis, adaptive models and vector autoregression models, graphic and descriptive analysis.<br />Originally the posed goals were realized by stepwise tasks decision.</p><p>There were identified the current problems of development of operational business statistics:<br />a) insufficient number of published indicators development industry, construction, trade and services;<br />b) incomplete harmonization of the Russian STS indicators with international standards;</p><p>c) lack of user-friendly interface, that provides access to operational business statistics for users of statistical reporting;</p><p>d) difference of economic activities classification used by Rosstat and Eurostat (ISIC rev. 3 and NACE rev. 2, based on ISIC rev. 4, respectively)</p><p>&nbsp;&nbsp; In the paper were done such works as building of adaptive models that describe and predict the dynamics of operational indicators of industry in Russia. Models forecast a rise in the index of industrial production, employment in industry and industrial producer price during the first quarter of 2014. Also as a result of the statistical analyzes of the interdependence of STS indices for industrial sector through cross-correlation functions there was found a weak relationship between indicators.</p><p>&nbsp;&nbsp; Graduate work describes the comparison results of the dynamics of activities of &quot;Experimental factory &quot;Gidromontazh&quot; and STS indicators for Russian industry as a whole: the index of industrial production, employment and producer prices. Development trends of the analyzed company mainly differed from the trends characteristic for the entire industry during the study period . In addition, this paper contains the results of modeling and forecasting of multivariate time series of indicators of an industrial enterprise with the help of vector autoregression model. With help of this model there is the following prediction: an increase of company efficiency &ndash; the growth of production of &nbsp;&quot;Experimental factory &quot;Gidromontazh&quot; with stable employment and constant product prices.</p>