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Modelling the US Federal Funds Rate Target

Student: Nezhel`skij Maksim

Supervisor: Andrei Sirchenko

Faculty: School of Statistics, Data Analysis and Demography

Educational Programme: Bachelor

Final Grade: 9

Year of Graduation: 2014

<p>&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;In recent years many macroeconomists have increasingly focused on decisions made by individual members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and other central banks. It is commonly asserted that predictability and more transparent behavior of the policymaker creates a stable environment to manage private sector expectations, reduces uncertainty in the economy, and, therefore, improves the effectiveness of monetary policy. However, it is still complicated to predict monetary policy actions because of delay in the release of policy decisions or even rejections of most central banks to publish extensive results of their meetings. The problem is addressed by the use of a wide range of econometric models and the attempt to test models with real-time macroeconomic data and mesuare of unofficial dissent, data on whose were collected by the author.&nbsp;</p><p>The results show strong and robust power of coefficients in the model. To sum up, it would be better to do promter release of voting records, if FOMC puts effeciency of monetary policy the first.</p><p>&nbsp;</p>

Full text (added May 29, 2014) (3.25 Kb)

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