Year of Graduation
Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Development of the Commercial Real Estate Market In Moscow
School of Statistics, Data Analysis and Demography
Annotation to the final qualifying work 4th year student of department of statistics, data analysis and demography Zemlyansky Alexander.Research supervisor - Mkhitaryan Vladimir Sergeyevich, Professor, Head of Department of Statistics, Data Analysis and Demography, Faculty of Economics HSETopic "Statistical analysis and forecasting of development of the commercial real estate market in Moscow"The aim of the work is the analysis and modeling of investment and demand for the purchase of commercial real estate, as well as study the profitability of the market at the time of acquiring premises for rent .To achieve this goal and solved the following problems:1. Constructing microeconomic models that will reflect the acquisition of the utility area of commercial real estate. This model is an equation that takes into account the estimated profit, the cost per square meter of real estate acquisition, payback room and one of the main components - the safety of investing (no risk factor)2. Identification and study of the factors shaping the economic utility of investments in commercial real estate and market demand in Moscow. Using a regression analysis influence of factors shaping the rent and time of staying in the market of the real estate space.3. Predicting performance conditions of the Moscow real estate market. The analysis of the dynamics of change in rental rates and structure in the districts of Moscow. The forecast rental rates using the model ARIMA.In this research we used an open market information available on the websites of consulting agencies, in particular most of the data was provided by "Gruppa companiy CYN" .The study was derived microeconomic model, which allows to take into account the risk factor when choosing investments. Further analysis were dismantled most important factors for investment, such as rents and downtime premises. Regression models were derived, which showed through what there certain preconditions for the successful implementation of commercial space, as a business. Were also provided descriptive data on the market. Map was drawn schematically showing the level of rental rates relative to Moscow business center " Moscow City". The result was arbitrarily defined "ideal" unit of commercial real estate, which is the calculation of personal risk rates could come under the utility requested. It turned out that the most profitable real estate - real estate is "B +" grade, when property "A" class is the most reliable according to investors which increases the demand for this segment, respectively, reducing profitability.Further analyses of the changes were considered commercial real estate market over time. Was taken from the first quarter of 2010 and analyzed the weighted average rental rates in the districts of Moscow. The study showed that the introduction of a major business center in the district higher class than all other objects that are close, has a significant impact on the market, increasing rental rates. Identified structural changes that eventually confirmed the Chow test. Further analyzes by applying ARIMA model was built to forecast the end of 2015. On the basis of the forecast obtained by the expected level of rents. Based on this level was included additional factor expertise that takes into account the upcoming regular appearance of a structural shift in the market tower "Evolution" in the business center "Moscow City", as well as the completion of the construction of the tower "Federation - East." Equation was derived expected that the corrected average rental rate and demonstrated new results on the chart.