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Modeling of Migration Flows with Spatial Effects at the Level of Municipal Formations of the Russian Federation

Student: Polina Pyastolova

Supervisor: Elena Vakulenko

Faculty: Faculty of Economic Sciences

Educational Programme: Master

Year of Graduation: 2014

<p>This paper presents econometric models of migration with the spatial effects using Rosstat&rsquo;s data on social, economic and demographic situation in Russian municipal formations in 2011-2012. Our estimates imply that the dependence between migration and wages in the neighbors regions is positive but not linear: the higher the wages in the nearest formations the higher the net-migration in the municipality, but the saturation point exists. The hypothesis about the poverty traps for some territories was not accepted. It was shown that migration flows in Northern Regions and the other territories are of different nature.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><em>Key words</em>: migration, municipal formations, spatial correlation, poverty traps.</p>

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