Statistical Analysis of Short-Terms Business Statistics Indicators to Estimate Real Sector Economy Development

<p>&nbsp;</p><p>The object of study is the industrial sector of the Russian economy. The subject of research is short-Terms business statistics Indicators. The purpose of the study is to determine the current state and trends of the industrial sector of the economy of the Russian Federation on the basis of statistical analysis of operational business indicators.</p><p>Main tasks:</p><ul><li>Determine the degree of compliance with international standards of Rosstats indicators of the industrial sector;Начало формы</li><li>To assess the general state of the global economy and the current trends in the industrial sector in Europe on the basis of indicators OBS</li><li><img border="0" height="96" src="clip_image002.gif" width="96" />Analyze the dynamics of OBS indicators in&nbsp; industrial sector of the Russian economy;</li><li>Make a short-term forecast the economic situation in the industrial sector of the Russian Federation on the basis of OBS indicators.</li></ul><p>&nbsp;</p><p>The first chapter is devoted to the study compared the legal and methodological framework of OBS in the EU and Russia. The second chapter is devoted to definition of global trends in the development of industrial production and its impact on the industry of the Russian Federation by means of multivariate statistical analysis. The third chapter is devoted to the analysis and modeling of time series of OBS indicators of the Russian Federation for the purpose of short-term forecasting.</p><p>Information base for the study were conducted by the official publication of the Federal State Statistics Service and the database of the statistical service of the European Union.</p><p>As a result of studying methodological framework of OBS &nbsp;in RF and EU a comparison table of OBS indicators was given. In general, the majority of published Rosstat&rsquo;s indicators meet the requirements of OBS. The main difficulty stands in their collection, proper handling and interpretation. Stage by stage classification of the European Union countries for the period 2011-213 years, allowed to determine the trends in the development of industry in Europe. Recent years were designated for Europe protracted and deep recession. But, based on the analysis of dynamics of OBS industrial sector of the Russian economy was able to establish that the crisis is not fully affected on industry of Russia. Starting from May 2013 has been a steady recovery of the manufacturing sector, do not stop even against &quot;heavy&quot; first quarter of 2014. Constructed on the basis of predictive models were able to establish that this growth is likely to continue at least until the end of the second quarter of 2014.</p>