The Survey Data of Graduate Entrants Analysis and Forecasting Application Success Using Statistical Modeling Methods

Student: Kanof`eva Ekaterina

Supervisor: Artur Borisovich Luppov

Faculty: School of Statistics, Data Analysis and Demography

Educational Programme: Master

Year of Graduation: 2014

In this master thesis was conducted the micro segmentation of graduate students who are the consumers of education services. In this case, the university as the organization provides educational service to students in certain areas.  Although this service is intangible, it has a tangible outcome in the form of diploma which is issued at the end of the study. The object of the research in this paper is the aggregation of graduate entrants, and the subject is studying of their characteristics. The subject of this study is very significant for the university. For this research the results of questioning of applicants have been used, which have been analyzed using statistical methods for analyzing the segmentation.In this thesis the following objectives had been stated:- To understand the graduate entrants characteristics;- To propose ways to increase the number and level of applicants;- To propose a tool for applicants with the help of which could be identified the potential areas of development for them, to increase the likelihood of admission to the HSE.On the basis of the objectives, it was stated the following tasks:- To examine the students demand for education on master program in HSE;- To analyze the changes in preferences of applicants considering the responses to the questionnaires during different years;- To develop a tool to predict the possibility of the applicants enrollment to the HSE master program.The topic of this thesis is very important nowadays, as the demand for the education on master programs in the HSE is growing every year, the latter increases the potential for selection of the most capable applicants for master degree. The applicants’ preferences regarding their preparation for entrance exams, as well as whose advice they consider when choosing a university were understood during study. It is possible to determine the strategy for further work with applicants. These results of the questionnaire were examined by all methods of statistical modeling in the segmentation, after which it was selected the most optimal model, which provides a high percentage of prediction accuracy of the possibility of enrollment to HSE master program. Approbation forecasting model on two data sets on different years demonstrated good results. The prediction for those who could enroll was predicted with the high accuracy, the result of prediction for those who did not enroll, were slightly worse.Thus, this work has further practical application. Used in the questionnaire information about entrants allows a high degree of accuracy to predict whether they will be enrolled to university. Accordingly, knowing the prediction parameters, entrants affect the predictive model and can increase the likelihood of enrolment.

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