The Impact of Migration on Demographic Structure of Russian Small Territorial Units

<p>The aim of the research is to investigate the impact of youth migration on demographic structure formation at sub regional level in Russia during the 2003-2010 intercensus period.</p><p>The object of study is the demographic structure at the level of small areas.</p><p>The subject of study is the scale and patterns of small areas&rsquo; demographic structure transformations under influenced by migration.</p><p>Data used in the paper: Russian Census 2002 and 2010, 1-year structure at sub regional level, current migration and mortality record.</p><p>The hypotheses are as follows:</p><ol><li>Current migration record fails to take big part of youth migration into account;</li><li>Migration is the main driver for the changes in youth cohorts&rsquo; size at sub regional level;</li><li>There is no significant return migration of youths to the inner periphery after the high school graduation;</li><li>The remoteness of peripheral territory form the regional center influences the scale of intraregional migration.</li></ol><p>For the deeper cohort research on intraregional youth migration the 18 regions of Central Federal District of Russia are chosen. The core-peripheral processes are evident at this long-settled area. Moreover, the enormous center of migration attraction, Moscow, is located in CFD.</p><p>The novelty of the research lies in the level of administrative division choice: Russian Census 2002 and 2010 data is compared at the municipal level. In the paper the first ever attempt to evaluate the return migration of youths to the periphery is presented.</p><p>The core findings of the research are.</p><p>The comparative analysis of the census and current migration record, the two main sources of migration data, revealed the evident flaw of the latter. It lies in the totally inadequate registration of migration in the &ldquo;student ages&rdquo; (18-22) during the last intercensus period, 2003-2010. The current migration record describes no more than 1/5 of the change in the size of birth cohort 1988-1992 in CFD evaluated by the census comparison.</p><p>Intraregional migration scale estimation showed the decrease in the number of school graduates at the inner periphery. The pace of youth centripetal movement has increased rapidly since the last intercensus period, 1990-2002.</p><p>The evaluation of the return migration to the periphery showed no compensative relocation of youths in the &ldquo;post-student ages&rdquo;. The demographic depletion of the periphery is lasting. The majority of regional centers faced a surplus in the number of youths in &ldquo;post-student ages&rdquo;. We guess that this is the indicator of local labor market shortage.</p><p>The visual analysis of spatial variations in demographic structure characteristics at sub regional level, held with the use of author&rsquo;s maps built on census data, allows us to evaluate the cumulative effect of core-peripheral migrations of several youth generations on the demographic structure. The spatial mobility of population seems to be the main driver for changes in the &nbsp;demographic structure.</p><p>The lasting and even accelerating flight of the young population makes the sustainable demographic development of the inner periphery.</p>