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Student
Title
Supervisor
Faculty
Educational Programme
Final Grade
Year of Graduation
Dar`ya Efremova
Forecast of Russian citizens’ demand on tourism trips to Rome based on the evidence of bookings and arrivals
Faculty of Management
Master’s programme
2014
Forecasting in tourism is crucial because of the impossibility of tourism product saving for the future use. We should pay great attention to the compilation of precise and accurate predictions for the most efficient allocation of available resources of destination or travel organisation, and to be able to satisfy all the demands of tourists and maintain the tourists’ flows stable. This issue is relevant for small travel agencies which can identify high and low periods on the basis of demand forecasting. Furthermore destinations’ authorities can be also interested in forecasting in order to undertake additional actions, and destination’s infrastructure development and maintainance for tourists attracting and to be able to accept and provide quality leisure facilities all tourists.Italy receives annually growing flow of tourists from Russia, providing opportunities for different types of vacation: sightseeing of ancient towns, seaside vacation, mountain tourism, and recreation in the thermal springs . According to statistics, in 2013, Russia took 10th place in number of tourists who visited Italy. Demand for tours to Italy is not limited by the period of the year (as it happens , for example, in case of Turkey or Greece, which are more preferable in summer due to weather conditions), because at different period of time, this country can offer its tourists various opportunities for recreation.The aim of this paper is to create a universal forecasting model that would allow accurate predictions of tourism demand to be made quickly on the basis of observations for several years. Number of tourist arrivals is one of the most popular indicators of demand for the tourism product. Number of room nights booked in the hotel determines the demand in the hospitality industry .Information for the paper was gathered during the internship in one of the Russian travel agencies, offering their customers a full range of services needed for an unforgettable stay. It should be noted that information was provided on the number of nights in hotels and arrivals only for tourists who purchased vouchers through this agency, the paper does not address all of Russian tourists who visited Italy for the period under review. In addition, secondary data analysis was carried out: reports of statistical offices of Russia and Italy concerning tourists’ arrivals and other indicators of tourism demand.After a thorough examination of the literature on tourism demand and its determinants , and methods of forecasting were analyzed data on the number of nights booked and the arrival of tourists in Rome hotels for the period 2009-2013 years , based on which the prediction was made on the indicators in 2014 using exponential smoothing models Holt- Winters. Selected forecasting method recognized as the most accurate and comfortable to use by researchers who have paid great attention to the analysis of tourism demand , as it allows evaluating not only the past observations​​, but also the current data in the forecast. In addition, method allows to take into account not only indicators of demand, but also the level of trend and seasonality in the industry, calculated with smoothing variables. To use this method, researcher must have observations for the period more than 2 years . As a platform for building the model Microsoft Excel was selected.Based on the forecasted values ​​for 2014, we can conclude that the application of the model chosen on the basis of exponential smoothing, makes it possible to achieve the most accurate results in the case of forecasting the number of arrivals in Rome. In case of forecasting number of nights booked, chosen method was transformed, because the trend factor has not been identified in the observations, therefore its impact has been excluded from the forecast.

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