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Construction of Epidemic Model Considering Risks and Protectors. Epidemic Situation Forecast.

Student: Ul`yana Nikiforova

Supervisor: Yulia Grishunina

Faculty: Faculty of Applied Mathematics and Cybernetics

Educational Programme: Specialist

Year of Graduation: 2014

<p>In the work there is a review of existing epidemic models. A new epidemic model is introduced, considering the external infection sources both in deterministic and stochastic cases. For deterministic model we forecast the epidemic&rsquo;s duration, as well as its maximum and the moment the maximum is reached. We also make a forecast of the length of the epidemic and its magnitude (i.e. the number of people who have been infected). For the stochastic model a linear equations system for conditional mathematical expectations of the time before the end of epidemic. A way to estimate the epidemic&rsquo;s magnitude is given as well.</p>

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