• A
  • A
  • A
  • ABC
  • ABC
  • ABC
  • А
  • А
  • А
  • А
  • А
Regular version of the site

Risk analysis of the infrastructure construction projects on the basis of Public-private partnership in Russia

Student: Kovalyova Evgeniya

Supervisor: Leonid E. Limonov

Faculty: Faculty of Economics

Educational Programme: Bachelor

Final Grade: 8

Year of Graduation: 2014

<p>Graduate work on the subject of &ldquo;Risk analysis of the infrastructure construction projects on the basis of Public-private partnership in Russia&rdquo; includes 4 pictures, 3 diagrams, 9 tables and 5 appendixes. For this research domestic and foreign sources are used. It consists of 65 pages; the list of sources contains 45 papers devoted to observable subject.</p><p>Key words: public-private partnership, transport infrastructure, risk assessment, simulation modeling, sensitivity analysis.</p><p>During the implementation of long-term, large-scale projects there are always a significant number of risk factors, which have an influence on the efficiency of the project in a different ways. Public-private partnership projects aimed at implementation of socially-significant problems. It means that they are focused on development of cities, regions and country as a whole. The implementation of such projects is influenced by general and specific factors in Russia. Because of this, to achieve goals of projects, the issue of risk assessment is crucial and demands constant development.</p><p>Public-private partnership, as a base for project realization, started to develop rapidly in Russia. Unfortunately, due to its novelty for our country, this area is little-studied. Accordingly, the issues of risk assessment are also poorly developed and required further analysis. This is the scientific novelty of the study. According to the results of the research, combination of sensitivity analysis and simulation model is effective and acceptable. It can be used by companies to analyse risks of transport infrastructure projects on a PPP basis. This is the practical significance of the research.</p><p>This work paper is devoted to the application of qualitative and quantitative risks analysis techniques for large transportation project &quot;Western high-speed diameter&quot;. The subject of this research is a large-scale investment projects, which are implemented on the basis of public-private partnership, and the topic is the set of methods for analysis of PPPs projects risks (sensitivity analysis and simulation approach).</p><p>In the course of the study of theoretical issues, it was defined the concept of PPP, the basic mechanisms and conditions of its realization in Russia. Moreover, we have also identified the main types and classification of risk factors, studied the basics of qualitative and quantitative methods of risk assessment.</p><p>During the practical part of the work we apply examined techniques to estimate the transport project of the toll highway &quot;Western high-speed diameter&quot; in St. Petersburg.</p><p>The results of application of qualitative methods (the first step of the analysis) showed the list of factors which may affect project implementation, its measure and likelihood. Apart from this, we got the basic values of NPV, IRR and DPBR, which are accordingly 8176131633 rubles, 22,5% and 17,63 years. Due to the sensitivity analysis, it was highlighted 4 main parameters that can affect the efficiency of the project with the greatest force. They are the level of prices, the discount rate, the cost of construction and sales. In addition, the results showed that the project has enough margin of safety.</p><p>Application of the Monte-Carlo method illustrated that the overall risk of the project is less than the average NPV. It amounts 5986,686 million rubles. This analysis also performs automatically simulations. Because of this fact, the procedure of analysis is sufficiently transparent and is not affected by subjective experts&rsquo; opinion. Therefore, the use of these methods is the correct way to assess the risks of investment projects.</p>

Full text (added June 9, 2014) (244.67 Kb)

Student Theses at HSE must be completed in accordance with the University Rules and regulations specified by each educational programme.

Summaries of all theses must be published and made freely available on the HSE website.

The full text of a thesis can be published in open access on the HSE website only if the authoring student (copyright holder) agrees, or, if the thesis was written by a team of students, if all the co-authors (copyright holders) agree. After a thesis is published on the HSE website, it obtains the status of an online publication.

Student theses are objects of copyright and their use is subject to limitations in accordance with the Russian Federation’s law on intellectual property.

In the event that a thesis is quoted or otherwise used, reference to the author’s name and the source of quotation is required.

Search all student theses