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Prediction of Company Bankruptcy in Russia

Student: Chukhlantseva Mariia

Supervisor: Elena Fedorova

Faculty: Faculty of Economic Sciences

Educational Programme: Economics (Bachelor)

Year of Graduation: 2016

In this article the author has checked the consistency of the current normative values ​​coefficients approved by the regulatory acts of the Russian Federation, and also provides refined by constructing decision trees and statistical analysis normative values ​​that allow with sufficient accuracy to classify on a bankrupt and financially healthy companies. It has also been made to compare the efficacy of six different sets of financial ratios by constructing a logit - models. The results showed that the highest average accuracy of all of these approaches has shown a list of factors, the selected researchers (Giacomino, Bellovary, Akers, 2007) on the frequency of occurrence in the works devoted to the prediction of the bankruptcy of companies, for the period [1930 - 2007] - 73.3%. The study of "legal" models showed improvement in the quality of normative acts of the Russian Federation over time (increase in predictive power for a few percentage points).

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