Year of Graduation
Statistical Research and Modelling of R&D Spending
Economics and Statistics
This work is devoted to statistical investigation and modelling of the current state of innovation activity of domestic enterprises through the study on research and experimental development expenses(R&D). In this work expenditures on R&D have been taken through 85 subjects of the Russian Federation in 1996-2014 years. The research is divided into introduction, three chapters, conclusion, references and applications. The first chapter presents theoretical and methodological framework of the study; it also carried out a literature review on the subject of the study. The second chapter shows the research of the dynamics of scientific and innovative indicators in different countries using a regression model and cluster analysis. The last part contains the analysis of the cooperative activities in the scientific field using of binary choice models and time series with the construction of the forecast based on the optimal ARIMA model. The study finds a significant lag of domestic country from foreign ones in the field of science and innovation. Analysis of the relationship between factors of innovation development notes that the increase in the number of researchers and high technologies will improve innovative state of the country. Classification of regions allows evaluating the level of development of inhomogeneous subjects of Russia. Construction of binary choice model submits that rise the number of researchers and patents negatively affect cooperative activities. Furthermore, if the expenditures on R&D through the regions are above the average level, the probability of co-operation also increases. The time series analysis of the indicator R&D costs reveals that over 20 years the value has a negative trend. However, now the companies understand that use of innovations would help to achieve high economic results, and gradually enhance the funding for R&D. The forecast promises a positive growth of expenses that will change innovative state of the domestic enterprises.