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Modelling of Foreign Economic Relations of Russian Economy Based on Balance of Payments

Student: Malika Shaikhutdinova

Supervisor: Nikolay Pilnik

Faculty: Faculty of Economic Sciences

Educational Programme: Economics (Bachelor)

Year of Graduation: 2016

Nowadays economies of different countries are extremely interconnected. In the context of recent crisis in the prices of resources (crude oil and natural gas), export of which constitutes a large part of total good export for Russian economy, combining with imposed economic sanctions, that restrict relations with other countries, the influence of foreign economic relations on Russian economy becomes evident. Therefore, the topic of this proposal aimed at creating the model of the balance of payments for Russia based on monthly data from 2000 to 2015 in order to provide forecasts according to various possible changes in exogenous variables. The first step to achieve this aim is data collecting and decomposition of quarterly data to monthly data where necessary. The next step is the construction of several models for each component of the balance of payments based on the OLS method and combining these equations into a single model. The last step is the prediction of the main components of the balance of payments according to three different shifts in exogenous variables.

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