Year of Graduation
Ruble Exchange Rate, Oil Prices and Economic Sanctions
This research is devoted to the main factors that influence the exchange rate, and to the assessment of the effectiveness of monetary policy instruments of the Central Bank. The paper begins with analytical review of the currency crisis faced by Russia in 2014. After that, econometric analysis, including simple statistical analysis, plotting linear regressions and State Space Model, is presented. The research based on daily data for the period between the years 2000 and 2016. This sample was divided into 3 sub-samples in order to account separately the impact of the 2008 crisis and a currency crisis of 2014. On the basis of conducted research it was revealed that the main factor influencing the exchange rate is the changes in oil prices. Moreover, the imposition of sanctions provoked the increase of elasticity level of the ruble exchange rate to the changes in oil prices. The monetary policy of the Central Bank also had an impact on the exchange rate. Transition to the floating exchange rate regime has led to a significant increase in the elasticity of exchange rate to the changes in oil prices. In addition, changes in the key rate had an impact on the interbank Ruonia rate. Ruonia rate fluctuations also provoked the increasing dependence of the ruble on the oil price. The results of the econometric analysis revealed that from 2013 to 2016 intervention did not influence the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate.