Ruble Exchange Rate Determinants

Student: Lisser Veronika

Supervisor: Dmitrii Vyacheslavovich Timofeev

Faculty: Faculty of Economics, Management, and Business Informatics

Educational Programme: Economics (Bachelor)

Year of Graduation: 2016

This study examines the influence of the basic fundamentals of macroeconomic equilibrium and changes in the real effective exchange rate in the period from 1994 to 2015. The purpose of research is to identify the most influential determinants of the exchange rate of the ruble using the method of assessment of the external balance. The data provided for the bases of the International Monetary Fund and the basis of the Federal Reserve Statistics. The method consists of two phases: assessment panel regression using the least squares method with fixed effects and estimation of time series using standard OLS. The result was two models that can indicate the direction of changes in the exchange rate, which indicates the viability of the identified determinants. The factors entered into the model, these include: inflation, exports, the current account and investment.

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