Import Substitution in Russia: A Case for Economic Development or National Security?

This paper assesses the economic viability and rationality of Russia’s import-substitution (ISI) plan adopted in 2014. Economic viability is understood as the plan’s likelihood of success both in terms of its theory and implementation. Rationality is taken as an agent maximising their expected gains. There is a well-documented body of literature criticising ISI. Considering this, combined with Russia’s implementation flaws, it is concluded that in economic terms the policy is unlikely to bear fruit. As Russia still continues with the plan, it is argued that Russia’s ISI strategy is as much a national security policy as it is an economic development initiative. This will be demonstrated by synthesising the Copenhagen School of International Relations’ securitisation theory with geo-economic theory. Through both a theoretical and empirical investigation, this paper will show that while the economic feasibility of ISI is doubtful, the heightened securitisation of economic relations and processes in recent years justifies Russian policymaking decisions and reaffirms its rationality.