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Aggregated stress-testing of non-financial company’s risks: the case of OJSC Kuzbasskaya Toplivnaya Company

Student: Loginova Kseniya

Supervisor: Sergey K. Shvets

Faculty: St.Petersburg School of Economics and Management

Educational Programme: Finance (Master)

Year of Graduation: 2016

The relevance of the research topic refers to the need of development and implementation of complex models and stress testing methods on companies in the real sector of the economy, which would allow assessing the sustainability of an enterprise in the conditions of a crisis in the economy. The main purpose of the research is a formation and approbation of stress testing methods applied to the non-financial companies. Objects of the research are production and business processes of a coal company. Subject of the research - the process of stress testing for JSC "Kuzbass Fuel Company". The scientific novelty of the study is to provide a method of stress testing for non-financial companies, taking into account the specifics of their activities based on the methodology of Corporate Metrics and development of recommendations for elimination of risks for a coal industry company. Substantive provisions and the results of this study can be used by other non-financial companies in the analysis of the resistance to the changing conditions of macroeconomic and microeconomic environments, as well as in risk assessment and the development of an integrated risk management system. The first chapter of the study is dedicated to the analysis of the essence of stress testing, its basic methods and role in the integrated risk management system (ERM), also developing the methodology of stress testing for non-financial companies. In the second chapter, a comprehensive analysis of the external and internal environment of the business activities of JSC "KTK" conducted, the results of which revealed the most significant types of risks inherent to the investigated companies. The third chapter of this study is devoted to the approbation of the proposed procedure of stress testing on the data for the coal company JSC "Kuzbass Fuel Company" and to the development of recommendations for elimination of the risks for the JSC "KTK".

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