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Export Growth Theory: Analysis for BRICS Countries

Student: Artur Zimin

Supervisor: Irina Khvostova

Faculty: Faculty of Economics

Educational Programme: Economics (Bachelor)

Final Grade: 8

Year of Graduation: 2016

The Bachelor’s Thesis by the fourth-year student of the group 12WE2 NRU HSE NN, training direction 38.03.01 «Economics» and educational program “Economics” «Export Growth Theory: Analysis for BRICS Countries» by Arthur A. Zimin. This paper contains 57 pages, 14 tables and 6 pictures. Keywords: export growth, economic growth, foreign trade, exports, imports, GDP, export dependence, BRICS. The object of the study - the BRICS economies. The subject of research is the economic indicators such as GDP, exports and imports. The aim of this research is to identify the dependence of economic growth on exports to the BRIC countries. The tool is of simulation is vector error correction model. The information base consists of the main macroeconomic indicators for the period from 1989 to 2014. To build a model were used software package Eviews. The paper described the development of the theory of foreign trade and analyzed other authors’ literature on similar topic. Were described foreign trade and economy of the BRICS countries. A model by which was tested the hypothesis of the influence of exports on GDP. The findings confirmed the hypothesis about the impact on export economies. Based on study results, the positive long-run relationship between exports and GDP for all countries was found. Also short-term relationship between exports and economic growth has been identified. In addition to the impact of the export, as was analyzed relationship between imports and economic growth. There is long-term relationship for all countries. The short-term relationship in Brazil, Russia, India and China not found, while in South Africa was.

Full text (added May 26, 2016)

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