Predictability of Interest Rates and Inflation: Empirical Evidence from the USA

Student: Kutateladze Varlam

Supervisor: Andrei Sirchenko

Faculty: International College of Economics and Finance

Educational Programme: Financial Economics (Master)

Year of Graduation: 2016

Detailed records of Federal Open Market Committee meeting deliberations (transcripts) are only available to the public with a five-year lag. The research presented in this study analyzes individual policy preferences revealed during policy deliberations as recorded in the transcripts, and examines whether this information is valuable for forecasting key interest rates or inflation. I conclude that a prompter release of transcripts could increase the predictability of FOMC’s monetary policy decisions, and thus make the Fed’s behavior both more predictable and transparent.

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