Electoral Absenteeism as a Stable Behavior: Characteristics and Determinants

In the study, the author examines the electoral absenteeism in modern Russia, as a stable trend during for a long time. As the problem, the author draws attention to the following fact: on the one hand, electoral absenteeism is a stable behavior at the country level, on the other hand, non-participation in elections of the majority of citizens cannot evidence its legitimacy. Because of this contradiction, the author asks what factors forced the Russians from year to year to ignore political elections. In accordance of this, the aim of the study is to analyze factors of electoral absenteeism as a stable behavior in the Russian conditions. To achieve this goal, the author formulated the following tasks: 1. The creation of a unified classification of the factors of electoral absenteeism with the application of theoretical analysis. 2. Evaluation of a direct impact on the level of electoral absenteeism of the following theoretically identified categories: demographic, satisfaction with different aspects, interest in politics, political participation, trust in political institutions (the first set of hypotheses). The task is solved using two methods of regression modelling: binary logistic regression and regression with filtered sample into a common model and respondents who do not obey the general pattern. 3. Evaluation of the impact of the factors gender, age, education on the change of interest in politics, which, in turn, can affect the level of non-participation in elections (the second set of hypotheses). The task is solved by using the method of path analysis with the mediators. 4. The check on the consistency of the results of the models built by three methods. The task is solved by attempting to transfer patterns identified in the database 2012. (the 6th wave ESS) to the data 2010 (the 5-th wave of the ESS). 5. Comparison of potential of three methods to predict the participation/non-participation in the elections.