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Expected Project Cost Minimization under the Threat of a Disruptive Event

ФИО студента: Artem Polushin

Руководитель: Igor Tsarkov

Кампус/факультет: Graduate School of Business

Программа: Project Management: Project Analysis, Investments, Implementation Technology (Master)

Год защиты: 2017

No project is immune from an event that contributes to stopping one or several works for an indefinite period of time. This phenomenon, called a disruptive event (DE), can have a significant impact on the project, up to a twofold excess of its value, so a tool that allows to make a decision aimed at minimizing the cost of projects in which such events may arise becomes more and more significant. In this regard, the aim of this work is developing recommendations on project cost management under the threat of a disruptive event, aimed at minimizing expected value of such projects. To achieve this goal, the following tasks were set and solved: • Analysis of the phenomenon of disruptive events existing approaches to management of risks caused by such events; • Analysis of the most common methods of project risk management, determining their applicability for projects at risk of disruptive events and identifying the most appropriate tools; • Investigation of the effectiveness of the use of stochastic programming in managing the cost of projects under the threat of a DE; • Applying of stochastic programming to project cost management in a project that is currently in the process of implementation; • Development of practical recommendations aimed at maximizing the NPV of the project for the enterprise involved in its implementation. The object of the study are large complex infrastructure projects at risk of blocking events. The subject of the study are the processes of planning and controlling the cost of projects under the threat of a DE. Recommendations developed as a result of this study can be used by enterprises to reduce the expected cost of a project at risk of DE.

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