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Student
Title
Supervisor
Faculty
Educational Programme
Final Grade
Year of Graduation
Ekaterina Kutynina
Aggregation of Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Recommendations in the Framework of Evidence Theory
Applied Economics
(Master’s programme)
8
2017
The paper is dedicated to the method of aggregation of financial analyst’ rec-ommendations in the framework of the evidence theory. This method consid-ered the example of Russian stock market and the quality of the obtained re-sults was compared with the classical consensus-forecast. It is shown that the combination rules, which are widely developed in the theory of evidence, al-low for aggregating the recommendations of analysts taking into account the historical reliability of information sources, the nature of the taken decisions (pessimism-optimism), the conflict between forecasts and recommendations, etc. In most cases it turned out that, obtained aggregated forecasts are more accurate than consensus-forecast.

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