Year of Graduation
Aggregation of Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Recommendations in the Framework of Evidence Theory
The paper is dedicated to the method of aggregation of financial analyst’ rec-ommendations in the framework of the evidence theory. This method consid-ered the example of Russian stock market and the quality of the obtained re-sults was compared with the classical consensus-forecast. It is shown that the combination rules, which are widely developed in the theory of evidence, al-low for aggregating the recommendations of analysts taking into account the historical reliability of information sources, the nature of the taken decisions (pessimism-optimism), the conflict between forecasts and recommendations, etc. In most cases it turned out that, obtained aggregated forecasts are more accurate than consensus-forecast.