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Factors of Political Regimes’ Stability in Conditions of Natural and Technogenic Disasters

Student: Samorodova Anastasia

Supervisor: Mikhail Mironyuk

Faculty: Faculty of Social Sciences

Educational Programme: Applied Politics (Master)

Final Grade: 9

Year of Graduation: 2017

Complex analysis of In MA research author presents complex analysis of stability factors of political regimes in conditions of natural and technogenic catastrophes. Comparative analysis of political stability factors was implemented on cross-sectional time-series sample of 117 democratic and non-democratic states in period 1994-2014. Panel regression analysis shows that the change in the two-year GDP dynamics and the two-year dynamics of "Political Stability and Absence of Violence" indicator are associated with the number of deaths as a result of disasters, with the indicator of political regime and the onset of large catastrophes. Using the method of counterfactual modeling author comes to the conclusion that if the catastrophe did not happen, this would lead to a decrease in the indicator of economic growth.

Full text (added June 1, 2017)

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