Analysis of Investment Projects in Oil and Gas Industry

The aim of this work is to choose the most appropriate methods for investment projects analysis in the oil and gas industry, to structure of them according to the objectives of analysis and stages of investment projects life cycles and to improve these methods and to develop on their basis the integral indicator of evaluation of efficiency and risks of the project. The main task of the first Chapter is to develop the author's own method for evaluating efficiency and risks of projects in the oil and gas industry. The integral indicator is a matrix of dimension 5*3 which is subsequently transformed into a matrix-column and then in the total evaluation index. The index includes the results of projects evaluation by means of qualitative (the ranking method) and quantitative (the hierarchy analysis method) efficiency and risks evaluation (the hierarchy analysis method and the simulation known as the Monte Carlo method) taking into account the weights of each criteria which were obtained during the realization of appropriate methods. In the second Chapter for the hierarchy analysis method the problem of separating the main groups of industry risks and their subjectivity was solved by means of method of principal component analysis. The key risks of the industry were singled out and as a result, 4 main components were obtained. They include more than 85% of the sample variance. The weights of the components are linear combinations of weights squares of correlation coefficients matrix of eigenvectors of the variables and values of the variables at this moment. For realization of the Monte Carlo method absence of suitable software was revealed and special software was developed on the platform 1C:Enterprise in contrast to existing programs which are created on Excel macros. The third Chapter is dedicated to testing of the method on the basis of investment projects of the company JSC Severnaya Neft’ and making recommendations for improving the development of them.