Scenario and Strategic Analysis of the Retail Banking: Identification of Strategic Opportunities

The economic situation in the country is based on financial system. The banking system is a key element. Healthy banks are the foundation of healthy economy. Landscape changes significantly in response to the evolving forces of technological changes, political and economics forces, customer expectations, regulatory requirements, demographics and new competitors. Banks need to define of these challenges to win. Banks must transform themselves for the future. Banks have to choose way how to adopt these changes. Manage defensively or to be a fast follower. Staying at the same position is not an option. The sector of retail banks has historically changed slowly. Nowadays the speed of change is increasing and it is very important to have a view of the global tendencies are influencing the modern banks. To be successful, banks need to understand in a detailed way current position and future scenarios, exploring new areas of potential growth. Scenario analysis is a process of analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes. The scenarios tells us how industry might turn out if certain trends continue and if certain conditions are met. By building a few alternative scenarios, management can foresee more unknowns that may happen, and therefore banks will be able to prepare ways to react or mitigate their impact. In master's dissertation were developed a few scenarios and within each scenario, were outlined the would-be trends and triggers, the potential implications (where to play), and the appropriate responses (how to win) for success in the market.