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Methods for Assessing the Reliability of Supply Chains in the Contexts of Transportation Procedures

Student: Natalia Dolganova

Supervisor: Vladislav Lukinsky

Faculty: St.Petersburg School of Economics and Management

Educational Programme: Strategic Management in Logistics (Master)

Year of Graduation: 2017

Keywords: supply chain reliability, transport model, international transportation, JIT philosophy, transit delays. This paper is devoted to the detailed consideration and analysis of methods for assessing the reliability of supply chains in the contexts of transportation procedures, as well as the creation of the universal model aimed to solve this problem. During this study, the works of Russian and foreign authors, dealing with the issues of improving reliability, were considered. The object of this study is to review the existing methods and models for assessing the transportation reliability in supply chains, as well as the creation of a universal model for its assessment for multimodal transport. The tasks of the study are as follows: 1) Review of the basic concepts used in the study; 2) Analysis of the state and development trends of international transportation in Russia; 3) Analysis of the main approaches to the study of methods and models of transportation reliability; 4) Creation of an integrated classification for delays during transportation; 5) Creating a model for assessing the reliability of transportation and description of its algorithm; 6) Practical illustration of the proposed model: the example of mixed international transportation. 7) Analysis of results and determination of vectors for further research. The scientific novelty of the study results are as follows: 1) The integrated classification of possible delay factors is offered for four types of transport including: sea, railway, automobile transport, airlift. 2) A model based on the probabilistic approach for assessing the transportation reliability is proposed. 3) The reliability of one of the largest trade routes from Asia to Europe is calculated.

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