Year of Graduation
Nicolas luis Hernandez-miyares
Gravity Model Analysis of Eurasian Economic Union Trade Flows: Assessing the Merits of the Eurasian Economic Union by Measuring the Risk of Trade Diversion
International Relations in Eurasia
The purpose of this paper is to determine whether membership in the Eurasian Customs Union (ECU), which is the customs union component of the Eurasian Economic Union (the EAEU), has been associated in either the diversion or creation of trade for its members. We test whether the ECU has been associated with trade diversion or and/or creation by applying a gravity model to annual bilateral exports for 51 countries, including the ECU member countries of Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia, and Kyrgyzstan, during the period 2006-2015. Using panel fixed effects estimation methods, we augment the gravity model to include variables capturing the effects of trade diversion/creation caused by ECU membership. The results of our analysis indicate that the ECU has been largely trade diverting – in terms of exports and imports – as a whole and individually for each of Kazakhstan, Russia, and Belarus.