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The Role of Migration in the Stability of Political Regimes in the CIS

Student: Kristine Aslanian

Supervisor: Andrey N. Scherbak

Faculty: Saint-Petersburg School of Social Sciences and Area Studies

Educational Programme: Politics and Governance (Master)

Final Grade: 9

Year of Graduation: 2017

The paper is dedicated to the influence of migration on the political stability in CIS countries. Throughout the whole Post-Soviet period these states passed several stages from politically unstable to stable regimes. First stages of life out of the Soviet Union were complicated for the states: in some countries the economically difficult situation was accompanied with cross national wars and civil wars, and in others the political development was not that complicated but far from stable. The whole transition period is characterized by large migration flows, which, as we will see, although decreased after 25 years, are still significant for all the CIS countries. Research question is how migration influenced on political stability in these countries. The paper presents the main theories of political stability and migration, special attention is paid to the theories of “Foot voting” by Tiebout and “Relative deprivation” by Gurr. The author also examines the main stages of migration and the development of political regimes in the CIS countries. A hypothesis is proposed about the positive impact of migration on political stability. In the empirical part of the research, a statistical panel analysis is performed using the random GLS regression method. The author constructs two models of the impact of migration on the main indicators of political development and the influence of political stability on migration and the main indicators of political development. As well, a qualitative analysis is made using the method of questionnaire-based survey of emigrants-citizens of Armenia, confirming the results of quantitative analysis. The results of the study can be useful for countries in the development of migration policy in the future. The impact of migration on the political aspects of life in the CIS countries is not sufficiently studied and needs further development.

Full text (added May 23, 2017)

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