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Educational Programme
Final Grade
Year of Graduation
Olga Pankratova
Creation of Prediction Rating Model for 1С Partners Based on Sales Data
Business Informatics
(Master’s programme)
The marketing component of the company's promotion is one of the important aspects of the company's activities. The rating of firms-partnersis a powerful tool to promote the companies 1C franchisee. Being at the top positions allows the company to gain greater customer loyalty and gain an additional argument for sales in the mass and corporate markets. The main purpose of this work is to build a model that allows to determine the necessary number of implemented solutions, feedback and confirmations of clients for the stable retention of the first place and at the same time preventing further failures.

The model was built using a discrete-event simulation method that is implemented in the AnyLogic system. In the practical part of the work, a simulation model was constructed that allows predicting the development of the ratings of 1C franchise and building optimal tactical behavior to maintain a stable first place and avoid failures in the future.

The model consists of three parts:

1. Model of point drifting in the archive:

2. The model of forecasting the volume of sales;

3. The simulation model in AnyLogic that is a complex model that receives the input of previous models' work and gives instructions how to work with the rating.

The results of the model's work were verified on the data of 2015, and then the result for 2017 was predicted. The work of the model was also used to predict situations that may arise in the future. Both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for working with ratings were described.

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