Short-Term Development Tendencies of Trade: Analysis and Forecasting

Trade indicators analysis and forecasting allows to identify tendencies and development prospects of the trade sector, that are important for making managerial decisions. Therefore, the availability of a system of short-term business statistics (STS) plays a significant role. The aim of the thesis consists in constructing a system of Russian trade sector short-term business indicators in accordance with the STS methodology of the EU and applying mathematical and statistical methods for short-term tendencies forecasting. The final qualification work includes an introduction, two chapters, a conclusion, references and annexes. The introduction defines the relevance of the study, its subject, object, aim and objectives. In the first chapter, the study of the EU methodological basis of trade sector STS indicators was carried out and the most closely related indicators of Rosstat were determined. In the second chapter, an econometric analysis of the current state of trade in the Russian Federation was conducted using STS trade indicators. The forecasts of the Russian Federation and the European Union trade indicators were constructed using Bayesian vector autoregression. Also, unidimensional analysis of the retail trade turnover was carried out using SARIMA, Holt-Winters models and Artificial neural networks to determine forecasts of the development of the studied sector. The conclusion summarizes the results of the qualification study.