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The Impact of Shocks on the Banking Sector: Factors in the Spread of Instability Among Financial Institutions in Russia.

Student: Aleksandra Grinikh

Supervisor: Alexander Skorobogatov

Faculty: St.Petersburg School of Economics and Management

Educational Programme: Economics (Bachelor)

Year of Graduation: 2017

In January 2015, the government of the Russian Federation launched the program of the recapitalization through federal loan bonds to support banks after the shocks of currency and interest rate in 2014. For its implementation trillion rubles were allocated. In such cases, it was assumed that this kind of support for banks helps the "improvement" of the Russian economics. However, now it is difficult to trace the full effect of these improvements because about one third of the participants of the program have not fulfilled its requirements. Then the question remains: is it necessary to support individual banks to preserve the stability of the financial system? The main purpose of this work is to assess the impact of assets and liabilities components of banks (including interbank loans) exposure to the financial contagion of the economic system. To achieve this goal, in the process, the following tasks will be solved: 1. Analysis of disseminate the shock from one particular financial institution to the entire banking network; 2. Consideration of the influence of banks’ external assets on the financial infection; 3. Identification of the probability of the systemic risk occurrence for the specifics of Russian economics. The system of banks in Russia and the estimated impact of certain items of assets and liabilities of banks (including interbank loans) exposure to economic system the financial contagion were considered based on the model of Peyton Young. For the research, we have used the data of the assets and liabilities of Russian banks undertaken at the sites ", Association of Russian Banks" and "Unified State Register of Legal Entities". When we applied the insights of this model on this data, we get that the probability of financial contagion within the banking sector is weak, and therefore such support of the Central Bank is inappropriate.

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