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Production Localization Issues in the Automobile Industry within the WTO Legal Framework
This work is devoted to the identification of factors that affect the process of import substitution in the automobile industry and determine the incentives for locating capacities in the Russian Federation within the framework of production localization. In the first chapter, theoretical approaches to trade and political regimes are analyzed, and methods for stimulating localization and WTO rules regarding their application are considered. The second chapter touches upon the state of the internal market of passenger cars, international experience in supporting automotive industry and obligations of Russia to the WTO. The third chapter provides an econometric analysis of the import substitution model, which is built on monthly time series within the period from 2010 till 2016. The results of the analysis showed that nominal exchange rate of dollar, level of wages and consumer price index affect the change in the value volume of merchandise imports corresponding to commodity item № 8703. During the verification of the prerequisites of Gauss-Markov theorem and calculation of t- and F-statistic, it was also found that the resulting model is statistically significant at 5% significance level and possesses high predictive quality.