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Estimation of DSGE Model of Russian Economy With Oil-Producing Sector

Student: Egorov Dmitrii

Supervisor: Sergey Slobodyan

Faculty: St.Petersburg School of Economics and Management

Educational Programme: Applied Economics and Mathematical Methods (Master)

Year of Graduation: 2017

The aim of the current work is to construct DSGE model of russian economy which can predicts consequences oil price shocks and suggest monetary and fiscal policy rules responses. The model is based on the article «Notes on the underground: monetary policy in resource-rich economies» by Andrea Ferrero and Martin Seneca with a similar model for Norway. The thesis develops and implements the ideas of my own last year's coursework on the same topic. The model was constructed and IRFs are provided to different policy regimes. The most important conclusions of the work are: 1. For russian macroecomic models interest rate parity assumption must be excluded and exchange rate must have another mechanics 2. Flexible degree of openess of economy improves the accuracy 3. If the model includes separate export-oriented sector, it must have capital mechanics or smth similar to make it less sensitive to exogenous shocks 4. Monetary policy is not so important as in classical DSGE models 5. Fiscal policy is very important for Russia 6. The recent decision of russian Ministry of Finance to sell excessive oil revenue and store it in the Reserve Fund to stabilize exchange rate is a good decision which effectively stabilizes the ecomony

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