Modelling of Mortality in Russia with Actuarial Stochastic Models

In the first chapter, the concept of mortality and the specific features of Russian mortality in dynamics are reviewed; a review of conducted studies and a theoretical description of stochastic mortality models is given. The second chapter is devoted to the modelling of the death rate in Russia using regression models. For the regression analysis, 22 variables were selected, which in one way or another can influence the number of deaths. In order to eliminate multicollinearity, factor analysis was performed and 5 integral factors were identified. In order to take into account the demographic features of the CFD and solve the problem of data heterogeneity, a dummy variable was introduced, reflecting the region's ownership of the CFD. In the third chapter, six actuarial stochastic models were constructed: Lee-Carter, Renshaw-Haberman, Cairns-Blake-Dowd model and its three extended versions with the addition of the cohort effect in various ways. Their comparison showed that the Renshaw-Haberman model is in the best way fit Russian data. For this model a forecast 10 years ahead has been constructed. It has been established that a decrease in the mortality rate should be expected for most age intervals. In conclusion results and prospects of the study are presented.