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Student
Title
Supervisor
Faculty
Educational Programme
Final Grade
Year of Graduation
Margarita Erofeeva
Modeling the Impact of Mass Protests in 2010s on Political Change: Reasons for Positive and Negative Outcomes
Political Analysis and Public Policy
(Master’s programme)
2017
An analysis of Mass protests of 2010s shows the non-linear nature of the political changes and the different roles that the protest publics could play in the mechanism of political changes: the triggers of the democratic development; democratic innovators in authoritarian environment; watchdogs raising concerns about quality of democracy, et cetera - depending on the prevailing conditions and the actions of other actors. Authors raise research questions of modelling the mechanisms of political changes in the conditions of the growing wave of democratization - in embedded democracies, as well as in consolidated democracies, in hybrid and authoritarian regimes, - on the one hand, and the crisis of traditional democratic institutions - representative democracy, political parties - on the other.

In this paper proposed models of protests publics’ impact in the mechanism of political change will be tested by Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Results build on outcomes of will allow the authors to use Social Network Analysis to test models, received from qualitative analysis. Other methods: statistical analysis: repression, factor analysis, cluster analysis, and multidimensional scaling – will also verify empirical results received by using qualitative paradigm of data collection and analysis.

Authors reflect on the question to what extent protests publics influence on political change compare with other factors and actors. Latent general factors that influence political change will be figured out, and following interpretation will be made. Typology of countries under analysis will be made and will be compared with the proposed models.

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