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Stochastic Modelling of Climate Oscillations and Earth's Rotation

Student: Ivan Sgibnev

Supervisor: Leonid Zotov

Faculty: HSE Tikhonov Moscow Institute of Electronics and Mathematics (MIEM HSE)

Educational Programme: Applied Mathematics (Bachelor)

Final Grade: 9

Year of Graduation: 2017

This study is devoted to the climate variations in terms of the possible correlation with the Earth's rotation, and specifically the applicability of the stochastic integration model. The research aims to analyze fluctuations of global temperature on the Earth, El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) indices and then to study their possible relationship with the Earth's rotation; we also tried to predict North Atlantic Oscillation and El Niño - Southern Oscillation with simple model. In this study a set of programs was developed in MATLAB environment, implementing autoregressive methods, least-square collocation LSC, spectral and correlation analysis. Autoregressive method was applied for predictions. The application of least-squares collocation method made it possible to extract Chandler oscillation from the motion of the pole. The autocovariance functions, spectrum, trends and prognostic model’s graphs were presented. The well-matched correlation between climatic indices, amplitude of the Chandler oscillation of the Earth's pole, and length of day are of particular interest. Based on our study, we conclude that there could be a mutual influence between Earth's rotation and climate variations.

Full text (added May 25, 2017)

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