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Indetification of Structural Shocks Caused Recession of 2015-2016 in Russia

Student: Karina Zhakupova

Supervisor: Andrey G. Shulgin

Faculty: Faculty of Economics

Educational Programme: Economics (Master)

Year of Graduation: 2017

In this paper, an attempt was made to identify structural shocks that triggered the recession in 2015-2016. in Russia. The model of a small open economy, proposed by Shulgin (2017), was considered. A new rule of monetary policy describing the current regime was introduced; model parameters were estimated on the Russian quarterly data for 2001-2016. To fully decompose the structural shocks of the two periods, an algorithm was developed for the proportional inclusion of the contribution of shocks from the previous period to the current period. It is shown that the recession of the economy in the period 2015-2016 was caused by shocks of external factors: capital outflow and commodity prices.

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