Study of the Macroeconomic Factors Impact on the Lending to the Economy in Russia

The present research paper examines the macroeconomic factors impact on the lending to the economy in Russia. Lending being an important factor in the conduct of monetary policy, this work is relevant as it summarizes domestic and foreign experience in the field of lending, presents statistical data and builds three types of econometric models for both retail and corporate loans. The data is for the period from January 2003 to March 2017 and the sample includes 159 observations. The econometric models used in the research to investigate lending demand and supply are: error-correction model; autoregressive distributed lag model; vector error correction model. The main findings of the paper are: the short term dynamics of the retail loans is significantly affected by the demand deviation from the stationary level, however the deviation of offering from the long term level turned out to be insignificant; real household income in the long term has a positive impact on retail lending, while in the short term the effect is negative; interest rates for corporate and retail loans have a negative significant impact on the dynamics of the loans.