Influence of Armed Conflicts on World Oil Prices

Student: Zaytsev Evgeny

Supervisor: Andrei Sirchenko

Faculty: International College of Economics and Finance

Educational Programme: Double degree programme in Economics of the NRU HSE and the University of London (Bachelor)

Final Grade: 7

Year of Graduation: 2017

This paper is devoted to the investigation of the influence of armed conflicts on world oil prices. This topic is very important in understanding petroleum market, as, according to EIA, ‘most of the crude oil reserves in the world are located in regions that have been prone to political upheaval or in regions that have had oil production disruptions because of political events’ (EIA, 2017, https://www.eia.gov). For this purpose I use monthly data from 1993 to 2015 and Box-Jenkins methodology to consider 22 armed conflicts from 2001 to 2015. It was found that armed conflicts do not significantly affect oil price changes.

Full text (added June 16, 2017)

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