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Student
Title
Supervisor
Faculty
Educational Programme
Final Grade
Year of Graduation
Igor Bogoroditskiy
Econometric Analysis of the Information and Communication Technologies Impact on Economy
2017
The following paper is dedicated to measuring the impact of information and communication technologies (ICT) development on economy, particularly, GDP growth in Russia. There is no standard definition of ICT concept, hence, in this work, we will use proxy, which is calculated by the summation of main ICT indicators: mobile-cellular telephone subscribers, fixed broadband subscribers, fixed telephone subscribers and internet users. As a first step, Granger causality test and vector autoregressive model were constructed, estimating bi-directional relations between the two variables. The hypothesis that GDP growth does not granger cause ICT growth was rejected. Consequently, in order to solve the problem of possible endogeneity, two stage least squares method of estimation was implemented. Afterwards, the Durbin-Wu-Hausman test for endogeneity showed that the explanatory variable can be treated as exogenous and ordinary least squares estimation is more preferable than TSLS IV.

Finally, we decided to analyze autoregressive distributed lag model, which allows for inclusion of lagged values of dependent and independent variables. Two model specifications were estimated: first regression includes GDP growth as a dependent variable and four dynamic variables, namely, GDP growth, capital investments, labor productivity and ICT growth. The second one additionally includes five fixed regressors: education enrolment, foreign direct investment, openness to trade and government and household consumption shares.

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