Year of Graduation
Bankruptcy Predictions for Air Carriers: Global Market
Airlines are exposed to a variety of internal and external risks. Due to the high importance of the civil aviation industry, the severe consequences of bankruptcies of the airlines and the significant number of precedents, the question of the effective bankruptcy forecasting is still open. Financial indicators of the large inter-national airline companies from North America, Europe and Asia are examined for the period of 2009-2017. The paper introduces Logit model and Bayesian quantile regression as working prediction mechanisms. The result of the research is the model that takes into account Net Income, Quick ratio, load factor, assets turnover and geographical location of the company, and returns the prediction accuracy of up to 90%.